The question of whether the EU and
Washington should get more vocal in their criticism of Ankara depends on
whether these external actors have some leverage to impact the actions
of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. For instance, European
Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso told Erdoğan during the Turkish
leader's first visit to Brussels in five years, in January 2014, that
respect for rule of law and independence of the judiciary were essential
conditions for EU membership.
Will such friendly warnings have an
impact? The short answer is “no.” Turkey took its most serious
reformist legislative steps toward EU membership between 2003 and 2005,
during the AKP's first term and when there was strong momentum to begin
accession. Today, neither Ankara nor Brussels are very optimistic about
membership prospects. There are serious obstacles, ranging from Cyprus
to negative French and German public opinion about Turkish membership
that complicate the future of Turkey-EU relations.
The fact Turkey
itself lost its enthusiasm and that Europe is unable to recover from its
economic slump are additional negative factors. As a result, the EU
lost its leverage and soft power over Turkish politics.
What about
Washington's potential impact on Turkish politics? Some argue that it
is high time for the Barack Obama administration to speak up in defense
of Turkish democracy. An open letter signed by a number of American NGOs
(including Freedom House) and influential opinion makers made exactly
this point earlier this month. Yet, it looks like the White House is not
listening. After months of almost no contact, President Obama had his
first phone conversation with Erdoğan last week. The readout of the call
indicates that the dialogue was pretty much business as usual with
references to all the regular regional issues (Syria, Iraq, Cyprus,
Israel, etc.) and only one sentence at the end that suggests at least
Obama mentioned something about Turkey's internal dynamics: “The
President noted the importance of sound policies rooted in the rule of
law to reassure the financial markets, nurture a predictable investment
environment, strengthen bilateral ties, and benefit the future of
Turkey,” according to a White House statement.
Needless to say,
this was not the kind of conversation critics expected. This once again
showed that Washington gets involved in the domestic problems of a
country only when there are massive demonstrations and potential for
violence in the streets caused by governmental action. What Washington
sees in Erdoğan is a mercurial, erratic and embattled Turkish leader
willing to resort to the wildest conspiracy theories to attack his
domestic opponents. It is therefore not surprising that Washington does
not wish to provide ammunition to his conspiracies by publicly
criticizing him.
Under such circumstances, neither Washington nor
Brussels seem to have much leverage with Erdoğan. This is why, at the
end of the day, Turkey's own domestic dynamics will matter much more
than the reaction coming from the West. The fact that Obama linked his
rule of law warning to financial markets is quite telling. He must
probably think that, despite all his authoritarian tendencies, Erdoğan
has also proven to be a pragmatic politician. The Turkish prime minister
knows that the deterioration of the Turkish economy will impact his
electoral fortunes. It is not in his interest to fuel the image of a
country in constant political crisis.
If the economic dynamics of
the country continue, Erdoğan may suddenly rediscover the importance of
Turkey's EU journey as a stamp of approval on Turkey's investment
climate. Such a return to the EU reform agenda would also provide a
face-saving excuse for Erdoğan to stop his authoritarian policies. At
the end of the day, Turkey's American and European friends must still
place their hopes in the belief that Turkey has come too far in its
integration with the global economy to turn aggressively authoritarian
in its domestic politics. Time will tell, but hope is not a strategy.
ZAMAN,23 February 2014, |
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